Biomass Depletion and Carbon Emissions in Tanzania’s Kilombero Valley Floodplain: How Nyerere’s Legacy Informs Today’s Climate Action Strategies

Abstract

Land use and cover change (LULCC), driven by human activities and natural processes, has emerged as a significant factor in biomass depletion and increased carbon emissions, a key contributor to global climate change. This study examines the impact of LULCC on biomass loss and carbon emissions in Tanzania's Kilombero Valley floodplain (KVFP), an ecologically significant area, from 1990 to 2020. By utilizing moderate-resolution Landsat imagery from 1990, 2010, and 2020, the research applied a random forest (RF) algorithm for land classification and ArcGIS software for spatial analysis. Biomass and carbon stock estimations were based on models from Tanzania’s National Forest Resources Monitoring and Assessment (NAFORMA). The findings reveal a substantial biomass reduction of 26.93 million tonnes, releasing 12.66 million tonnes of carbon, leading to 46.46 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions. This release equated to an estimated economic loss of USD 185.83 million in the global carbon market. Forest degradation accounted for 95.9% of biomass loss, underscoring the critical role of forest management in combating carbon emissions. While agricultural and grassland expansions contributed to minor biomass gains, they did not offset the overall loss. The study draws on the environmental vision of Mwalimu Julius Nyerere, advocating for sustainable land use and the integration of climate resilience in land management policies. These findings emphasize the need for urgent policy interventions to safeguard natural resources and mitigate climate change in the KVFP, highlighting the relevance of Nyerere’s legacy in shaping modern climate strategies.