Abstract:
Land use and cover change (LULCC), driven by human activities and natural
processes, has emerged as a significant factor in biomass depletion and
increased carbon emissions, a key contributor to global climate change. This
study examines the impact of LULCC on biomass loss and carbon emissions in
Tanzania's Kilombero Valley floodplain (KVFP), an ecologically significant area,
from 1990 to 2020. By utilizing moderate-resolution Landsat imagery from
1990, 2010, and 2020, the research applied a random forest (RF) algorithm for
land classification and ArcGIS software for spatial analysis. Biomass and carbon
stock estimations were based on models from Tanzania’s National Forest
Resources Monitoring and Assessment (NAFORMA). The findings reveal a
substantial biomass reduction of 26.93 million tonnes, releasing 12.66 million
tonnes of carbon, leading to 46.46 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions. This
release equated to an estimated economic loss of USD 185.83 million in the
global carbon market. Forest degradation accounted for 95.9% of biomass loss,
underscoring the critical role of forest management in combating carbon
emissions. While agricultural and grassland expansions contributed to minor
biomass gains, they did not offset the overall loss. The study draws on the
environmental vision of Mwalimu Julius Nyerere, advocating for sustainable
land use and the integration of climate resilience in land management policies.
These findings emphasize the need for urgent policy interventions to safeguard
natural resources and mitigate climate change in the KVFP, highlighting the
relevance of Nyerere’s legacy in shaping modern climate strategies.
