Assessing the Socio-Economic and Ecological Impacts of Fishing Intensity in Bagamoyo, Tanzania: A Community-Based Perspective.

Abstract

Small-scale fisheries along the Tanzanian coast are increasingly shaped by rising fishing intensity, with far-reaching ecological and socio-economic consequences for coastal livelihoods. While national policies promote sustainable and community-based fisheries management, less is known about how the artisanal fishers themselves perceive fishing intensity, how this awareness relates to observed ecological change, and whether it translates into meaningful socio-economic and behavioural responses. Addressing this gap, this study applies the social-ecological systems (SES) framework to examine the relationships between fishers’ awareness of fishing intensity, the perceived ecological impacts, income outcomes, and adaptive strategies in Bagamoyo District, Tanzania. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 357 artisanal fishers across four coastal wards (Dunda, Zinga, Kaole, and Mlingotini), selected from official fisher registers. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, analysis of variance, Pearson correlations, binary logistic regression, and chi-square tests to assess how awareness of fishing intensity relates to ecological observations, fishing income, and adaptation behaviours. The results show that awareness of fishing intensity was high (74%), with most of the respondents reporting declining fish stocks (90%) and a substantial proportion noting the disappearance of multiple species (35%). Binary logistic regression identified years of fishing experience (OR=1.13, p=0.004), species loss (OR=1.92, p=0.003), and education level (OR=1.36, p=0.039) as significant predictors of awareness. ANOVA revealed significant income differences by awareness (F=6.34, p=0.014), while correlations showed negative links between income and species loss (r=-0.32, p<0.05). Chi-square tests linked awareness to gear substitution (χ2=5.12, p=0.024) and reduced effort (χ2=6.34, p=0.012), but not alternative livelihoods (χ2=2.01, p=0.156). These findings reveal a key social–ecological paradox: despite the widespread awareness of ecological decline, adaptive capacity remains constrained, and fishing intensity persists. By empirically linking ecological perceptions, income dynamics, and behavioural responses, the study demonstrates how awareness functions as a critical but insufficient mediator within a constrained SES. The study contributes novel micro-level evidence from an under-studied East African context and highlights the need for fisheries policies that move beyond awareness-raising to address structural barriers, including limited livelihood alternatives, education, and institutional support, in order to enhance socio-ecological resilience in small-scale fisheries.