Abstract:
Small-scale fisheries along the Tanzanian coast are increasingly shaped by rising fishing intensity, with far-reaching
ecological and socio-economic consequences for coastal livelihoods. While national policies promote sustainable and
community-based fisheries management, less is known about how the artisanal fishers themselves perceive fishing intensity,
how this awareness relates to observed ecological change, and whether it translates into meaningful socio-economic and
behavioural responses. Addressing this gap, this study applies the social-ecological systems (SES) framework to examine the
relationships between fishers’ awareness of fishing intensity, the perceived ecological impacts, income outcomes, and adaptive
strategies in Bagamoyo District, Tanzania. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 357 artisanal fishers across four
coastal wards (Dunda, Zinga, Kaole, and Mlingotini), selected from official fisher registers. Data were analysed using
descriptive statistics, analysis of variance, Pearson correlations, binary logistic regression, and chi-square tests to assess how
awareness of fishing intensity relates to ecological observations, fishing income, and adaptation behaviours. The results show
that awareness of fishing intensity was high (74%), with most of the respondents reporting declining fish stocks (90%) and a
substantial proportion noting the disappearance of multiple species (35%). Binary logistic regression identified years of fishing
experience (OR=1.13, p=0.004), species loss (OR=1.92, p=0.003), and education level (OR=1.36, p=0.039) as significant
predictors of awareness. ANOVA revealed significant income differences by awareness (F=6.34, p=0.014), while correlations
showed negative links between income and species loss (r=-0.32, p<0.05). Chi-square tests linked awareness to gear
substitution (χ2=5.12, p=0.024) and reduced effort (χ2=6.34, p=0.012), but not alternative livelihoods (χ2=2.01, p=0.156).
These findings reveal a key social–ecological paradox: despite the widespread awareness of ecological decline, adaptive
capacity remains constrained, and fishing intensity persists. By empirically linking ecological perceptions, income dynamics,
and behavioural responses, the study demonstrates how awareness functions as a critical but insufficient mediator within a
constrained SES. The study contributes novel micro-level evidence from an under-studied East African context and highlights
the need for fisheries policies that move beyond awareness-raising to address structural barriers, including limited livelihood
alternatives, education, and institutional support, in order to enhance socio-ecological resilience in small-scale fisheries.
