Forecasting Biomass Depletion, Carbon Emission and Economic Loss of Coastal Areas of Kinondoni District, Tanzania

Abstract

This study examines the impacts of land use and land cover (LULC) changes on biomass depletion, carbon emissions, and economic losses in Kinondoni District, Tanzania, from 2023 to 2033. Utilizing the National Forest Resources Monitoring and Assessment (NAFORMA) approach alongside modern GIS techniques, the research quantifies the ecological and economic consequences of these changes. Coastal habitats, particularly mangrove forests, serve as vital carbon sinks, aiding climate change mitigation by sequestering carbon. However, rapid urbanization, agricultural expansion, and infrastructure development have led to significant ecological damage in Kinondoni. The study predicts a biomass reduction of approximately 17,868.4 tonnes, primarily due to deforestation and mangrove degradation, which contributes to 103.4% of total biomass and carbon losses. This decline in carbon sequestration capacity results in the release of 8,390.1 tonnes of carbon, equating to 30,821.2 tonnes of CO₂. Additionally, the research forecasts an economic loss of around US$ 123,284.8 due to diminished carbon sequestration potential. The findings emphasize the urgent need for conservation and restoration efforts, particularly for mangrove ecosystems, and advocate for sustainable land use policies that incorporate ecosystem service valuation to bolster environmental and economic resilience in coastal Tanzania