Abstract:
Terrestrial climate change predictions use
various models that are based on atmospheric parameters
combined with projected carbon emission scenarios.
Increased levels of carbon emissions into the atmosphere
are accelerated by human activities and are the main
reason of climate change (CC). CC threatens networks of
protected areas (PAs) and forced many species out of PAs.
Unfenced PAs gives species opportunity to migrate from
one PA to another or other unprotected areas to sustain
their climatic niche. Many PAs in SADC countries including
transfrontier conservation areas (TFCA) are unfenced;
hence, connectivity of PAs uses corridors. However, many
of
these corridors are unprotected and advocacies
adaptation of reserved fauna and flora under CC. This
paper explains the less known amount of biomass loss and
carbon released to the atmosphere as result of habitat
conversion of eastern corridor of Selous – Niassa TFCA
which connecting the two PAs of Tanzania and
Mozambique. Specifically, the study predicts amount of
biomass loss, amount of carbon released to the atmosphere
and amount of conservation profit disposed as a result of
habitat conversion from 2015 to 2035. Existing data on
spatial and temporal changes in land use and land cover
(LULC) of eastern corridor of Selous – Niassa TFCA from
1986 – 2016 was analysed and used to forecast LULC from
2015 to 2035 by using CA-Markov model. The forecasted
LULC from 2015 to 2035 was analysed to get intended
results. The results revealed that, an
average amount of
29559.8 tons of biomass (above ground + below ground +
deadwood) loss annually from 2015 to 2035. Consequently,
average amount of 40217.2 tons of carbon (above ground +
below ground + deadwood) released to the atmosphere
annually from 2015 to 2035 equivalent to US$ 160868.6 per
annum if REDD+ implemented. The study concludes that,
there is a need to include virgin corridors into core PAs
network or formulation of sustainable conservation
strategies that will consider climatic niche of both flora and
fauna without compromising livelihoods of corridor
dwellers.
