Climate Mitigation through Ecosystems: The Role of the Kilombero Valley Flood Plain in Biomass and Carbon Sequestration in Tanzania

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes are pivotal drivers of biomass stock and carbon sequestration, playing a critical role in global climate mitigation efforts. This study investigates the biomass stock and carbon sequestration potential of Tanzania’s Kilombero Valley Flood Plain (KVFP), an ecologically significant region, in 2020. Using moderate- resolution Landsat imagery and a random forest (RF) algorithm for land classification, combined with spatial analysis in ArcGIS, biomass and carbon stocks were estimated based on models from Tanzania’s National Forest Resources Monitoring and Assessment (NAFORMA). The analysis reveals a total biomass stock of 14.7 billion tonnes in KVFP, corresponding to 6.8 billion tonnes of carbon and 24.9 billion tonnes of CO₂ sequestration. This sequestration equates to an economic valuation of approximately US$ 99.4 billion in the global carbon market. Forest ecosystems contributed the largest share, accounting for 92.3% of the biomass, followed by agriculture (2.9%), bushland (2.7%), and grassland (1.9%). Wetlands stored a minimal 0.1% of the biomass, while bare land, settlement, and water areas showed negligible contributions. Aboveground biomass represented 71.6% of the total stock, followed by below ground biomass (22.3%) and deadwood biomass (6.1%). These findings underscore the critical role of KVFP in carbon sequestration and its economic potential within climate mitigation frameworks. The study advocates for sustainable land use practices and the integration of climate resilience into land management policies to protect natural resources and combat climate change. Urgent policy interventions are needed to safeguard the KVFP’s ecological and economic value, aligning with broader global efforts to address climate change.